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Markets Alert, Long-Term Rates High and Bond Rout

The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds recorded its biggest quarterly jump in over a decade, and the German 10-year interest rate briefly rose to 3% - a level last seen in 2011. In Japan, swaps betting on 10-year bonds touched a yield shift of 1% for the first time since January.

The global markets are still tense after government bond sell-offs pushed long-term borrowing costs in the US and Europe to their highest levels in over a decade. While the market stabilized during US trading hours, traders remain concerned about a long period of tight monetary policy and are demanding higher compensations than ever to hold long-term government debt.

The repricing, which pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds to over 5% for the first time since 2007, extends even to stock markets and corporate bonds.

The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds recorded its biggest quarterly jump in over a decade, and the German 10-year interest rate briefly rose to 3% - a level last seen in 2011. In Japan, swaps betting on 10-year bonds touched a yield shift of 1% for the first time since January.

The selling pressure subsided with the commencement of trading in the US markets on Wednesday. This was triggered by a series of economic data releases, starting with a rise in private-sector job creation, as indicated by the ADP employment change, which was less than anticipated. Concurrently, crude oil futures prices plummeted over 5%, hitting a one-month low.

The two-year Treasury yield experienced a nearly 13 basis point drop from its session peak as traders adjusted their expectations for another Fed rate hike, leading to a stabilization in US stocks. However, global bonds have fallen by 3.5% in 2023, and yields worldwide have now reached levels almost unimaginable at the start of 2023. The sell-offs were so severe that they forced optimistic investors to surrender and forced Wall Street banks to reevaluate their forecasts.

The recent surge in U.S. yields, which are now significantly higher than those of other countries, has sparked a dollar rally. This has led to the euro falling to its lowest level in nearly a year, and the yen reaching 150 per dollar on Tuesday.

This defeat has also led to real yields rising to their highest levels in several years, with the inflation-adjusted rate for ten years in the US rising to over 2.4% - the same levels it reached in 2007

Author : Prop Connect
Publish Date : 05 October 2023
Tags : Markets Politics

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